Respiratory disease leading stocks

The core of the prevention end (vaccine) is Wantai Biologics and CanSino, the core of the detection end is Wondfo Biologics, and the core of the treatment end is China Resources Sanjiu, Yiling Pharmaceutical, and Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical.

Many friends who are new to the pharmaceutical sector always think that there is a super leader that can "do it all". To be honest, there is no such thing. The respiratory disease line from prevention, detection to treatment, technical paths and consumption scenarios are completely inconsistent. It is impossible for one company to take care of all aspects.

I accompanied my family to the pediatrician’s registration last fall and winter, and while I was waiting in line, there was a huge quarrel in the stock trading group. Some people said that Yiling was the real leader, and even Hua Qingwen was sold out. Some people said that the price of Wondfo’s joint testing kits had increased three times in a week, and some people pointed out the clinical data of CanSino’s RSV vaccine and called for bargain hunting. In the end, there was no unified conclusion. In essence, everyone’s criteria for judging a “leader” are fundamentally different.

Controversy over this concept has never stopped in the industry. Analysts who prefer value research believe in "pure track attributes". For example, although Wantai has the domestically exclusive nasal spray influenza vaccine, the HPV vaccine contributes nearly 70% of revenue, and the proportion of respiratory-related business is not high. Internal discussions can last for two hours as to whether it is a pure leader in the respiratory track. There is also Yiling Pharmaceutical. Many people feel that its performance boom was all due to short-term dividends during the epidemic. There are no follow-up blockbuster products in the core pipeline. It can only be regarded as an event-driven phased leader and cannot sustain its long-term leading position.

If you were doing short-term hot money, you wouldn't have so much trouble at all. I had dinner with a short-term trader I was familiar with before, and he said that during the wave of mycoplasma and influenza epidemics in October 2023, he first took Wondfo. At that time, the demand for respiratory joint examinations in hospitals exploded, and sales tripled in half a month. Wondfo increased by 22% during that period, and was the leader at the time; When the OTC drug purchase boom started in November, China Resources Sanjiu's cold medicine and anti-viral granules were out of stock online and offline, so they directly cut their positions to Sanjiu. During that time, Sanjiu rose by 17%, and the testing stocks began to pull back. "Whoever rises sharply is the leader, and it is useless to dwell on the fictitious ones." His words were crude and unreasonable.

Of course, there are also many people who step into the trap. I have a friend who is a retail investor. At the end of 2022, I heard someone say that a certain testing stock was a "respiratory leader." Essentially, they do not understand the attributes of this track: the performance of most targets follows the outbreak cycle of the epidemic, and there is no long-term stable growth logic. The so-called "leading" is often phased, and will quickly correct after the market window. If short-term event benefits are regarded as long-term value, there is a high probability that they will be buried.

There is also a view in the industry that a true leader in all tracks may emerge in the future. For example, the RSV monoclonal antibodies and asthma targeted drugs currently under development by Hengrui Medicine have reached the clinical stage. In addition, its own sales channels cover both hospitals and OTC. If the follow-up pipeline is implemented, it may be able to open up the entire chain of prevention and treatment. However, it is only an expectation now. Whether it can succeed depends on subsequent clinical data and sales.

To put it bluntly, "respiratory disease leading stocks" are originally a vague concept speculated in the market. If you want to make long-term value investments, don't just listen to others calling them leaders. You have to read the financial reports yourself to see if the proportion of respiratory-related business is high enough and whether the pipeline has follow-up product support. Don't be dazzled by the short-term sales surge. If you are doing short-term, follow the rhythm of the disease epidemic, ambush in advance and stop when the situation is good. Don't hold on to a certain "leading stock". When it comes to investing, targets that are suitable for your own trading system are much more reliable than the "leading" that everyone calls you.

(Note: The individual stocks mentioned in this article are only for industry analysis reference and do not constitute any investment advice. The stock market is risky, so you need to be cautious when entering the market)